Lets look at the record 33 games in. 16-14-3 for 35 points is just over a point a game which projects to 87 points in 82 games, and is at least 5 short of the last playoff berth in my estimate.
I think you have to aim for 95 points, which would be 38 points after 33 games, only 3 points difference but if the deficit keeps building then it gets harder and harder to catch up. Sound familiar?
This is exactly why the Leafs are perpetually in a "Race for the Playoffs".